Integrated Assessment Modeling of Global Climate Change: Much Has Been Learned—Still a Long and Bumpy Road Ahead

Abstract

This paper presents a history of integrated assessment modeling of climate change, discussing many relevant modeling studies produced over the last few decades. It identifies the era following the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report as a new phase in integrated assessment modeling and describes pioneering studies undertaken since that time. The paper then pinpoints challenges and initiatives in integrated assessment modeling, both in terms of the models themselves and in terms of communicating model results to policy makers and the general public. It emphasizes that improved modeling will produce results more relevant to policy makers, but these results must be a collaborative effort between scientists and laypeople, and must be communicated effectively in order to have any impact on the decisionmaking process.